Abstract:By the end of 2020, based on 63 effective distribution records of the Basilepta melanopu(B. melanopus) in China and 22 environmental variables, eight environmental limiting factors affecting the distribution of B. melanopus were determined. The MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential adaptive areas of B. melanopus (from 2021 to 2100) under current and future climatic conditions in China. The results show that the receiver operating curve area (AUC) is 0.992 in MaxEnt model. At present climate conditions, the total area of adaptive area is 6.69×105 km2, mainly located in the south and southeast of China. Besides the areas that had been infected by B. melanopus, its adaptive region includes Hubei, Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Taiwan provinces. The main environmental factors affecting the potential geographical distribution range of B. melanopus were precipitation of the coldest quarter, slope, and annual range of mean temperature. The precipitation of the coldest quarter was the most critical environmental variable affecting the potential adaptive areas range of B. melanopus. In scenarios SSP126 and SSP245, the total adaptive area of B. melanopus peaks between 2061 and 2080 and then declines. In scenario SSP370, the total adaptive area of B. melanopus peaks between 2041 and 2060 and then declines. However, in scenario SSP585, the total adaptive area of B. melanopus increases insistently. Overall, the center of adaptive areas predominantly shifts towards western, northern, and high-latitude inland areas.