降水量和气温变化对定西地区旱地春小麦产量的影响
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甘肃农业大学学科建设基金项目(GAU–XKJS–2018–255);甘肃省重点研发计划(18YF1NA070、20YF8NA135);甘肃省财政专项(GSCZZ–20160909)


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    摘要:

    为定量评估甘肃省定西市旱地春小麦‘定西35号’产量对各生育阶段降水量和气温变化的响应,以研究区1971—2017年逐日降水量和气温数据为基础,利用APSIM模型对小麦生育期和产量进行模拟,对近47年来研究区降水量和气温变化与春小麦产量的相关性进行了分析,并用二次多项式回归法分析了气候变化对小麦产量的影响。结果表明:8个生育阶段中,与小麦产量显著相关的6个气候因子分别为灌浆–成熟期的降水量、日均温和日均最高温,拔节–孕穗期的降水量、日均温和日均最高温;主效应分析显示,灌浆–成熟期的日均最高温、降水量、日均温和拔节–孕穗期的日均最高温、日均温、降水量对春小麦产量的直接贡献依次降低;单因素效应分析结果表明,拔节–孕穗期的降水量与产量呈开口向上的二次抛物线上升趋势,灌浆–成熟期的降水量与产量呈开口向下的二次曲线变化,小麦产量随拔节–孕穗期日均温的升高呈二次抛物线下降变化,随灌浆–成熟期日均温的升高呈二次曲线上升变化;小麦产量随着拔节–孕穗期日均最高温的升高而增加,但产量在达到某一峰值后随着温度的升高出现报酬递减;灌浆–成熟期日均最高温对产量的直接贡献率为负效应,但二次项偏回归系数为正值,表示为叠加正效应。

    Abstract:

    In order to quantitatively evaluate the response of spring wheat yield to precipitation and temperature changes at different growth periods in Dingxi City, Gansu Province, based on daily precipitation and temperature data from 1971 to 2017 in the study area, the correlations between precipitation and temperature changes with spring wheat yield were analyzed with the APSIM-model simulated growth period and yield of wheat, and the impact of climate changes on the yield of spring wheat was investigated with the quadratic polynomial regression method. The results showed that in the 8 growth stages, 6 climatic factors significantly related to the yield. These factors were precipitation, daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature at jointing-booting stage and grouting-maturity period. The main effect analysis showed that the direct contribution of these six climatic factors were in the order of the during grouting-maturity period’s daily mean maximum temperature, the precipitation, the daily average temperature, the jointing-booting stage’s daily maximum temperature, the daily average temperature, the precipitation. The results of single factor effect analysis showed that: the precipitation at jointing-booting stage showed a quadratic parabolic upward trend to the yield, and the precipitation at grouting-maturity stage showed a quadratic parabolic downward trend to the yield; the yield of wheat decreased with the increase of daily mean temperature from jointing to booting stage in a quadratic parabola, and the daily average temperature during grouting-maturity period showed a quadratic increase to the yield; the yield of wheat would increase with the increase of daily average maximum temperature from jointing to booting stage, but the temperature would increase continuously, after reaching a certain peak, the yield would decrease with the increase of temperature; the daily mean maximum temperature during grouting-maturity period was negatively correlated with yield, and the direct contribution rate to yield was negative, but the quadratic partial regression coefficient was positive, indicating that it was a superimposed positive effect.

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逯玉兰,李广,韩俊英,燕振刚,董莉霞.降水量和气温变化对定西地区旱地春小麦产量的影响[J].湖南农业大学学报(自然科学版),2021,47(3):.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-06-28
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