6套格点数据中洞庭湖流域旱涝特征分析
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湖南省自然科学基金项目(2018JJ2009);湖南省环境教育研究中心开放基金项目(HJ18K01)


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    摘要:

    基于1979—2015年洞庭湖流域27个气象站点的实测降水数据(CMD),采用降水Z指数、小波分析和线性倾向估计等研究方法,比较了美国环境预报中心的再分析降水数据(CFSR)和融合降水数据(CMAP)、欧洲中期天气预报中心数据(ERA–Interim)、全球降水气候学项目数据(GPCP)、英国East Anglia大学气候研究中心降水数据(CRU)和全球陆地降水重建数据(PREC/L) 6套格点降水数据中洞庭湖流域的旱涝时空变化特征。结果表明:研究时段内洞庭湖流域的旱涝具有明显的年际变化特征,GPCP的总体再现能力较强;洞庭湖流域整体呈变旱趋势,ERA–Interim中旱涝趋势与CMD的较为一致;流域旱涝具有明显的准18年、准3年和准5年的周期变化,GPCP中旱涝变化周期与CMD的较为接近;洞庭湖流域旱涝频率和变化趋势的空间分布存在区域差异,格点数据中,仅部分区域的旱涝频率和变化趋势与CMD的一致。总体上,GPCP对洞庭湖流域旱涝特征的再现较好。

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    By use of different precipitation data collected by 27 weather stations from 1979?2015 in Dongting Lake basin, we used precipitation Z–index, wavelet analysis and linear trend analysis to do comparative analysis with a set of worldwide available data. The data included observation precipitation(CMD), and the gridded precipitation data including National Center for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR), European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ERA–Interim reanalysis data(ERA–Interim), the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation(CMAP), the Global Precipitation Climatology Project monthly precipitation analysis(GPCP), University of East Anglia Climatic Research unit time–series of high resolution gridded data of month–by–month variation in climate(CRU), NOAA’s Precipitation Reconstruction over Land(PREC/L). It showed that the annual fluctuation in drought and flood was obvious over Dongting Lake basin. In general, the drought and flood grades from GPCP were consistent with that of CMD. There existed a drought trend in Dongting Lake basin, and the trend from ERA–Interim data agreed better with CMD than other gridded data. Quasi–periodic variation of drought/flood were about 18 a, 3 a and 5 a. For all gridded data, variation period of drought/flood from GPCP was close to CMD’s. The frequency and trend of drought/flood varied over different regions in Dongting Lake basin. In gridded data, only the frequency and trend of drought/flood in some regions were same with that from CMD’s. In conclusion, GPCP revealed the characteristics of drought and flood in the Dongting Lake basin in a better way than other gridded data.

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孙葭,黄一民,吴华武.6套格点数据中洞庭湖流域旱涝特征分析[J].湖南农业大学学报:自然科学版,2018,44(6):.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-12-25
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