中国烤烟种植区域布局变迁及其影响因素
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浙江中烟工业有限责任公司项目( 12–14Ba17);湖南省农村发展研究所基地招标课题(62021100085)


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    摘要:

    从“两大烟区”(南、北烟区)和“五大烟区”(西南烟区、东南烟区、长江中上游烟区、黄淮烟区、北方烟区)2个层面,对1983—2012年中国烤烟种植区域布局变迁进行描述性统计分析。结果表明,1983—2012年,中国烤烟种植呈现“北烟南移”格局,尤其是向西南地区迁移的趋势明显。在此基础上,根据农业区位理论与生产者行为理论,进行变量选取、理论假设和模型构建,并利用Eviews软件对影响烤烟主产区区域格局变迁的因素进行计量分析。结果表明,烤烟主产区区域格局的变迁受到土地资源、地理气候、经济、技术进步和国家政策等因素的共同影响。对于黄淮主产区而言,影响最显著的因素是人均耕地、农户粮食供给水平、技术进步、国家政策和农民非农就业机会;对于西南主产区而言,影响最显著的因素是农户粮食供给水平、技术进步、国家政策和自然灾害状况。

    Abstract:

    Descriptive statistical analysis methods were used to investigate the regional layout change of flue-cured tobacco planting from 1983 to 2012 in China from two aspects, one aspect was North and South tobacco growing region, the other was Southwest tobacco growing region including Southeast tobacco growing region, the upper reaches of the Yangtze River region, Huanghuai tobacco growing region, North tobacco growing region. The results indicated that from 1983 to 2012, the migration tendency of domestic tobacco planting layout was moved gradually from North to South, especially to southwest. On this basis, variance selection, theory hypotheses and model construction were conducted according to the agricultural location theory and producer behavior theory and eviews was used analyze the impact factors of flue-cured tobacco planting layout change from 1983 to 2012 in China. The results indicated that the planting layout change of tobacco in flue-cured tobacco main planting regions of China had correlation with land resource, geography and climate, economic condition, technological progress and national policies. For Huanghuai main planting region, the most obvious factors were per capita arable land, grain supply of household, technological progress, national policies and employment opportunity besides farming for famers. For Southwest main planting region, the most obvious factors were grain supply of household, technological progress, national policies and natural disasters.

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黄文清,李明贤,周冀衡.中国烤烟种植区域布局变迁及其影响因素[J].湖南农业大学学报:自然科学版,2015,41(1):.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-01-28
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