1961—2010年湖南气候变化特征及其对烟草种植的影响
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湖南典型烟叶产区生态特征及烟叶质量风格特色评价研究


Influence of climate change on tobacco planting in Hunan in 1961 to 2010
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    摘要:

    利用湖南省1961—2010年逐日降水量、气温和日照时数,采用线性倾向估计、M–K检验和滑动t检验等方法,分析了与烟叶生长密切相关的气候资源近50年的变化特征,并探讨了气候变化对烟草生产的影响。结果表明:湖南大田期日照时数总体呈下降趋势,平均每10年减少10.8 h;大田期降水量总体呈上升趋势,平均每10年上升6.3 mm,并在1991年发生了突变;成熟期降水量总体呈上升趋势,平均每10年上升了12.8 mm,气候突变发生在1989年;高温热害发生次数总体呈上升趋势,且在2000年发生了突变,自2000年以后,高温热害发生次数显著增多,发生机率明显增大;经历近50年的气候变化后,湘西北烟区和郴州烟区烟草种植的适宜度降低,湘西南烟区和长沙烟区的烟草种植适宜度提高,湘西中部、邵阳烟区、永州南烟区烟草种植的适宜度变化不大。

    Abstract:

    Based on daily temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration from 1961 to 2010 in Hunan, the climate change features closely related with the growth of tobacco in recent 50 years were analyzed using regression analysis, Mann-Kendall jump test and moving t–test and the influence of climate change on tobacco planting was discussed. The results showed that sunshine duration at field stage had decreased, with an average decrease of 10.8 h per decade; precipitation at field stage had increased, with an average increase of 6.3 mm per decade and abrupt climate change occurred in 1991; precipitation at mature stage had increased, with an average increase of 12.8 mm per decade and abrupt climate change occurred in 1989; the times of high temperature damage showed an increasing trend and the probability of this damage had increased significantly since 2000. The climate change in recent 50 years reduced the suitability of north Xiangxi tobacco area and Chenzhou tobacco area to tobacco planting and improved the tobacco planting suitability of southern Xiangxi tobacco area and Changsha tobacco area.

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张超,彭莉莉,黄晚华,陆魁东.1961—2010年湖南气候变化特征及其对烟草种植的影响[J].湖南农业大学学报:自然科学版,2012,38(5):482-486.

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  • 收稿日期:2012-06-14
  • 最后修改日期:2012-06-14
  • 录用日期:2012-09-04
  • 在线发布日期: 2012-10-09
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