李世成,易自力,廖剑锋,肖亮.基于Maxent模型对尼泊尔芒适生区时空分布的预测[J].湖南农业大学学报:自然科学版,2020,46(2):.
基于Maxent模型对尼泊尔芒适生区时空分布的预测
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  尼泊尔芒  Maxent  适生区  主导气候因子
英文关键词:Miscanthus nepalensis  Maxent  suitable area  main climatic factor
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(31871693);湖南省教育厅课题(18B116)
作者单位
李世成,易自力,廖剑锋,肖亮 湖南农业大学生物科学技术学院湖南 长沙 410128 
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中文摘要:
      为预测不同时期气候情景下尼泊尔芒的适生区,探讨制约其适生区分布的主导气候因子,基于60条尼泊尔芒现代地理分布记录和9个生物气候变量,利用ENMeval数据包对Maxent模型进行了优化,并利用优化后的Maxent模型对末次冰盛期、全新世中期、现代(1970~2000年)和未来(2061~2080年)4个时期的尼泊尔芒适生区进行了模拟,综合使用贡献率、置换重要性和Jackknife检验对气候变量的重要性进行了评估。结果显示:最优模型设置参数为特征组合选取LQH,调控倍频设置为3,在该设置参数下模型的测试集受试者工作特征曲线下的面积为(0.963±0.028),模拟准确度极高;温度季节性标准差、最冷月最低温度、年温度变化范围和年降水量是影响尼泊尔芒分布的主导气候因子;尼泊尔芒的现代中、高适宜区大面积分布于中国的西藏东部、四川南部、贵州西部和云南大部分地区;末次冰盛期,其适生区面积最大,在东海和南海的沿海地区存在其他时期所没有的适生区;全新世中期,其适生区轮廓与现代适生区的相似;2070年,其适生区整体北移;从末次冰盛期到未来,尼泊尔芒的适生区可能会先后经历了向内收缩、基本稳定和整体北移3个过程。
英文摘要:
      Maxent model optimized by ENMeval is used to simulate the suitable areas of Miscanthus nepalensis in four periods, including the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, present and the future(2061~2080), based on 60 occurrence localities and 9 bioclimatic variables. The importance of climatic variables is estimated by use of percent contribution, permutation importance and Jackknife test. The feature combination LQH and regularization multiplier 3 could generate optimal model; With the setting parament, area under receiver operating characteristic curve of test is (0.963±0.028) indicating highly accurate simulation accuracy. The main climatic factors affect the suitable areas of M. nepalensis are temperature seasonality (standard deviation), min temperature of coldest month, temperature annual range and annual precipitation. The highly and middle suitable areas of present distribution are mostly at eastern Xizang, southern Sichuan, western Guizhou and the great part of Yunnan. In the Last Glacial Maximum, it had the largest suitable areas, and coastal regions in the East China Sea and the South China Sea had suitable areas that were not found in other periods. In the mid-Holocene, the contour of suitable areas was similar to present suitable areas. In the future, the whole suitable areas would move northward. From the Last Glacial Maximum to the future, M. nepalensis may experience experiences three processes: inward contraction, basic stability, and overall northward migration.
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